Win the midterms, and Biden can assert authority. Lose them, and expect deadlock in Congress and a nightmarish return for Trump
The White House incumbent can steady the ship with strong, resounding victories in these midterms. Losing them will only make his life, and the Democrats', even harder.
It is fair to say that the results of the US midterms are certainly still up for grabs. Several months ago, despite not polling superbly, Joe Biden still looked on course for two years’ worth of political stability, ensuring the numbers were there in Congress to push through his wide-ranging policy programme. Yet it looks almost conceivable that the latest Republican surge has affected voters’ decisions.
When the Supreme Court’s ruling against Roe v Wade in July was delivered, many in Democrat circles - despite their understandable fury at the overturning - sensed that voters could vent their anger in these midterms. It was another reason to support the Democrats to ensure abortion rights were enshrined, they urged. And it conceivably had an impact.
In mid-August, Alaska held a special election (a by-election in UK parliamentary terms) upon the death of its congressman, Republican Don Young. Standing as the Republican candidate was Sarah Palin - the party’s former vice-presidential candidate in 2008 and one of Donald Trump’s ardent troopers. Mary Peltola, a former tribal court judge, stood for the Democrats. In what was seen as an upset, Peltola’s victory against Palin, the state’s former governor, was a seismic shift, particularly in Alaska’s political history. Peltola, who will face Palin once again in the midterms next week, declared her ardent support of the right of women to choose. This was arguably a well-decisive strategy, and it evidently paid off.
Just a week later, another special election was held - this time in New York’s 19th congressional district. Due to the resignation of Democrat Antonio Delgado, who was appointed as the state’s lieutenant governor, the polls pointed to a Republican gain. Instead, Pat Ryan, the Democrat candidate, aptly decided to - following the overturning of Roe v Wade - primarily focus on abortion rights throughout the campaign. Like Peltola in Alaska, this strategy was well-worked - and the rewards were delivered. Securing a majority of 3,000 against the Republicans’ Marc Molinaro, to deem it another upset was appropriate. After all, this district - rural and within New York’s northernmost areas - voted for Trump in 2016 and, only by a margin of 2%, voted for Biden in 2020. To deem it an upset was apt.
More generally, on the back of Roe v Wade’s overturning, the Democrats have unsurprisingly attempted to use every mechanism to draw voters’ attention towards that. In the beginning, it was a strategy that encapsulated voters’ minds - and the polls pointed to a rosy set of conclusions next week. But the situation has changed, and the economy has unsurprisingly taken centre stage in the campaign.
The US is no such anomaly to the effects of Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, with the economy seemingly unstable. Thus, the Republicans have capitalised rapidly, and voters have responded likewise. This has resulted in significant shifts towards Republican congressional candidates and senators in key battleground states that Joe Biden needs to win if he is to find any opportunity to push his policy programme through Congress.
Some of the congressional districts in these key battleground states are often the most influential at presidential election time: Iowa’s 3rd congressional district voted for Trump both in 2016 and 2020; yet in 2018, the most recent set of midterms, the congressional district flipped from Republican to the now-incumbent Democrat, Cindy Axne, with a slim majority of 5,221. In 2020, she increased her majority by around a thousand votes - but to win the House, as is expected of the Republicans, districts like these in Iowa must flip red if it is to do so.
Likewise in the newly-redrawn 8th congressional district in Colorado, stringent battles remain. Only by several percentage points did it vote for Biden over Trump in 2020, and in the previous seven districts that the state had at Congress level, in 2020 four voted Democrat whilst three voted Republican. Indeed, in the seat specifically, current polling points to a Republican victory. More broadly, the state has voted for each of the Democrats’ presidential nominees since 2008. Which means this one is quite a close one to call.
A Republican victory in the House pulls Trump further into the scene. Throughout the campaign, with those who wish to be blazed with the Trump endorsement, he has thrown his support behind particular candidates, some of the most extreme in the field. The question nonetheless remains: will he run again in 2024? It seems, to me at least, inevitable the former president will.
The gubernatorial race in Florida - between the Republican incumbent and seemingly likely 2024 presidential candidate, Ron DeSantis, and former Democrat congressman, Charlie Crist - is most important. Not due to the result, as DeSantis is predicted to clinch victory, but due to his campaign and whether he’ll stand in 2024 for the Republican nomination, possibly against Trump. Though it is a possibility, both men agree on myriad things - on abortion, gun and LGBTQ+ rights, the economy, and immigration also. Despite the closeness between the pair, it may potentially erupt into a major rift in the forthcoming years.
The Democrats’ strategy - of focusing more on Roe v Wade than the economic turmoil engulfing the world, including America - seemed wise. In fact, it is wise, especially when attempting to capture the votes of young progressives or, indeed, older voters who were undecided. In that regard, it was the right thing to do.
But the economy is often, if not all the time, the number one main issue on the minds of voters, particularly as they see prices soaring when carrying out the most basic of tasks, like heading to the shops. It’s happening in the UK, across the world, and the US is no such anomaly to the economic pressures. For the Democrats, that may imply receiving a harsh reality on November 8 and if predictions come to fruition, it means losing the House; but retaining the Senate.
These elections will ultimately make or break Joe Biden. With the former occurring, he can assert his authority showing, despite polling to the contrary, his presidency is pursuing interests and ideas that America widely supports. With the latter, however, it could easily but worryingly lead to a comeback for his 2020 opponent, who he defeated, as well as two years of Congress deadlock and stalemate. Whatever the outcomes, this concoction of battles certainly proves interesting viewing from those across the states and afar.